Afghan peace process: US peace plan in Afghanistan a ray of hope or a prelude to further destruction?

EPA

A new plan and a letter from the new US administration for peace and a permanent ceasefire in Afghanistan have emerged, with new proposals for the peace process in Afghanistan. 

A letter from US Secretary of State Anthony John Blankenship to Afghan President Ashraf Ghani and the head of the Peace Council, Abdullah (a copy of which has also been received) warns them that in case of withdrawal of international forces from Afghanistan the security situation could worsen and more areas could fall to the Taliban. 

  

The Afghan presidential palace in Kabul has confirmed receipt of the letter, but has not yet formally responded. 

  

However, Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh has categorically rejected the new US plan, saying that the Afghan people's vote has not been given a place in the plan and he cannot allow anyone to take away this right of the Afghan people. 

  

He said he was ready to talk to the Taliban but would not force anyone to do so. 

  

REUTERS

US Special Envoy Zalmai Khalilzad recently spoke with Afghan officials in Kabul 

  

The letter said that all Afghan parties should agree on a ceasefire as soon as possible to pave the way for peace. Simultaneously with the letter, the Biden administration unveiled a new eight-page plan for the Afghan peace process, proposing the formation of a caretaker government that would include the Taliban. 

  

At the same time, the establishment of a commission to amend the all-party constitution and a political roadmap for a ceasefire have been called for. 

  

The letter said that a meeting between the foreign ministers of Pakistan, Russia, China, Iran and India would be convened soon under the auspices of the United Nations in connection with the Afghan peace process. 

  

The letter from the Biden administration and the new plan come at a time when US Special Envoy for Afghanistan Zalmai Khalilzad met with Afghan officials in Kabul and the Taliban's negotiating team in Doha on Monday. In Islamabad, he met with Pakistan Army Chief General Qamar Javed Bajwa. 

  

Doha Agreement 

  

After nearly two years of negotiations between the United States and the Taliban, a peace agreement was signed between the United States and the Taliban on February 29, 2020, in Doha, Qatar. Key points of the agreement include holding inter-Afghan talks from March 10, reducing violence, withdrawing foreign troops by May 2021, and assuring that Afghan soil will not be used for terrorism against any other country. ۔ 

 

REUTERS

Negotiations between the Taliban and the Afghan government have made no significant progress in the past six months 

  

The agreement raised hopes that the 18-year war between the United States and the Taliban and the four decades of unrest on Afghan soil would end. 

  

But as the days passed, despair grew among the Afghan people. The agreement first sparked disagreements between the United States and the Afghan government, which led to differences between the Taliban and the Afghan government over prisoner exchanges. The differences, however, seem to have ended, but the inter-Afghan talks began in September with a delay of about six months. 

  

Under the US-Taliban agreement in Doha, all foreign troops will leave Afghanistan by May 2021. However, a recent NATO meeting indicated that if the situation in Afghanistan remained tense, its forces could remain in Afghanistan beyond that deadline. 

  

The Taliban have already threatened dire consequences if the Doha agreement is not implemented. 

  

A ray of hope or a prelude to ruin 

  

London-based Afghan journalist and analyst Sami Yousafzai sees the new peace plan as an "end to the process". According to him, no significant progress has been made in such a short period of time. 

  

"These are last resort because the United States, the Afghan government and the Taliban have very little time. If these efforts fail in this short period of time, Afghanistan will go to a catastrophe. 

  

Violence in Afghanistan has escalated in recent times 

  

He described Afghan Vice President Amrullah Saleh's response as "realistic" because "Afghans think they do not want to go back as far as they have in the last 20 years." 

  

According to Sami Yousafzai, although the Afghan army is not strong enough to establish its writ across the country, it will not allow the Taliban to retake Kabul. 

  

However, Tahir Khan, a Pakistani journalist and a keen observer of Afghan affairs, believes that the United States has introduced this new formula under duress, as there was no progress in inter-Afghan talks. But if they do not agree, then when it comes to the ceasefire and the future system, it will take years. 

  

"At least Pakistan will not oppose whatever the US does." 

  

There has been no reaction from other countries in the region, including Pakistan, to the new US plan. But according to some sources, US Special Envoy for Afghanistan Zalmai Khalilzad discussed the new plan with the political and military leadership, among other topics, during his visit to Islamabad. 

  

Tahir Khan says that Pakistan has repeatedly said that Pakistan will support whatever the Afghans themselves decide in the Afghan peace process. According to him, that is why Pakistan lost The Afghans have distanced themselves from the talks because they believe that if there is no progress in the talks, the Afghan people will be angry with Pakistan. 

  

Tahir Khan said that Pakistan would support this new American formula, "In my view, whatever the United States does, Pakistan will not at least oppose it and Pakistan will support it to a great extent." 

  

So even today, will Egyptian President Ghani support a new power transfer plan if the transfer of power is through elections? An Afghan politician explained all this through an Afghan proverb, "If you don't go to school, you will be taken to school." In other words, President Ghani may have no choice. 

  

"The main responsibility for peace in Afghanistan lies with the Afghan people, but the international community, led by the United States, has been involved in the conflict and is responsible for it," Shahrzad Akbar, head of Afghanistan's Independent Human Rights Commission, told AFP. "It's not just about the safe return of our troops." 

  

"They still have influence over the parties in Afghanistan and they should use it to address the plight of the Afghan people through meaningful dialogue," he said. 

  

Violence escalates 

  

On the one hand, the Taliban's armed operations in Afghanistan have intensified over the past several months, and on the other hand, there has been no significant progress in inter-Afghan talks. 

  

EPA

Although the Taliban has vowed not to attack international forces in Afghanistan since the Doha Accords, their attacks on Afghan forces and violence have escalated in almost all provinces of the country. 

  

During this time, the Taliban have repeatedly accused the United States and international forces of carrying out attacks on Taliban strongholds, even civilians. 

  

On the other hand, in the last several months, the number of targeted killings has also increased in various cities, including the capital Kabul, in which government officials, journalists, social workers and judges have been targeted. The Taliban denies involvement in some of these incidents.